The problem of disturbing changes is that most people do not really see it. Most have been warned, but they are not. The current epidemic is a clear example of the situation we are living in. Then came the 2008/9 banking crisis. Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls it the “Black Swan Events”, and the advent of electric vehicles is far superior to the previous two examples, but is rapidly changing. Unless you work in the oil industry.
When Tesla began selling its first road district and then the Model S, many major car companies were skeptical of the technology, with both Daimler and Toyota becoming independent in 2014 and 2016. The model 3 was the world’s best-selling Nissan Leaf until it was stolen, but it did not inspire the vision that this would be the kind of car that many people would eventually drive.
But over the past two years, you have seen a freight train on the horizon that has not been denied or protected. The latest car sales in the UK hit 15.2% of battery-powered vehicles in the market in September, up 9.5% for the year to date. Despite the shortage of chips, the BEV market is booming as the market for pure fossil fuels falls. Beans are now more popular than diesel in the UK. Even the hybrids had a bad September. Plugins are now sold in diesel in Europe.
Tesla Model 3 is now the best-selling car in the UK
The Tesla Model 3 became the best car of all fuel in the UK in September. It is important to keep in mind that September is the end of the quarter, and Tesla has a strong sales pressure in those times, so these figures will be artificial. But it is still unbelievable to see this car sell for 31% more than the next big seller: the entry-level Tesla Model 3 standard Range Plus sells less than half the compact Vauxhall Corsa. In the UK, the only car ads you see on TV right now – with the exception of Toyota’s suspicious “self-filling hybrids” – are for electric cars.
Of course, we live in a time of great uncertainty. Traders have been shutting down for the past 18 months, and the epidemic has swept away all normal car sales figures. Chip shortages make it difficult for manufacturers to meet their needs. In the UK, we have had a fuel crisis that has caused some people to question whether traditional cars are more comfortable than cars that they can afford at home.
But theoretically, distribution issues and chip shortages should have affected the BVs like any other type of vehicle, and it is clear that this is not the case. Electric car sales in the UK have been accelerating since mid-2019. On Twitter, an expert posted a “S Curve” of sales in the UK, And now we think we will buy more VIAs than any other car in this country by mid-2023. That means only 18 months.
This is very simple modeling, and there are many factors that can change the volume of sales. Probably too bright. Electric cars are currently more expensive than fossil fuels, and second-hand car sales are second-hand. It will take a few years for the best BVs to reach the utility market from mid-2019, but the remaining values on BEVs are very good so then the prices of second hand BEVs will be relatively high.
Cheap electric cars are coming fast
However, even the price crisis may not last long. The British brand MG (now owned by the SIS in China) has been declining in price from the MG ZS EV, then the MG5, and most recently the latest long-range version – one of the lowest BEVs. The market still offers 250 miles (WLTP). The company announced the long-distance version of the ZS SUV with only 273 miles (WLTP). Prices will not be released until November, but in the delta between the original MG5 and the Long Range version – for only $ 1,500 ($ 2,000) – the new ZS Long Range will not be too expensive.
The charging infrastructure could be the biggest bugbear for the next few years. This is a great selling point for Tesla, with a wide, very reliable and easy to use network of super chargers. But infrastructure is always in the “chicken and egg” relationship with everyone who supports it. If there are not enough users to support them financially, no one is willing to invest in infrastructure. And without infrastructure, buyers are reluctant to take the plunge. That balance seems to have been suggested to EV, however, When sales of electric vehicles explode in 2020, there will be no signs of a decline in 2021. The cars are there to make a profit by providing inexpensive chargers. Like, for example, hydrogen gas stations.
This is how markets run. About 80% of new car sales are already in Norway, where electricity is available. We saw the advent of smartphones in the late 2000s, which put Nokia and Erickson to sleep. In the mid-90’s, we saw the advent of steam-powered personal computers, and they are now everywhere. We saw it on the Internet until the late 1990s, but it revolutionized everything from reading news, watching videos, and communicating in general. Cars are doing the same thing. Battery-electric cars are not perfect for every type of use, but most of them can already be assembled, and by the end of the last decade they will be the mainstay of vehicles.